Opinion
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The Global Sources of America’s MessFormer NIC Chair Greg Treverton muses on whether the current US polarization and gridlock is self-inflicted or foreign influenced.November 27, 2023 -
Reframing ChinaFormer NIC Chair Greg Treverton examines the future of the Sino-American relationship: collaborative, competitive, and/or adversarial.November 10, 2023 -
AI and Intelligence: ChatGPT OutputFormer NIC Chair Greg Treverton asked ChatGPT to write how he would assess the impact of AI on the US...October 3, 2023 -
The Promise and Peril of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Intelligence AnalysisFormer NIC Chair Greg Treverton asked ChatGPT to write how he would assess the impact of AI on the US...October 1, 2023 -
Thinking about Future World OrderFormer NIC Chair Greg Treverton says that any confident predictions about China’s future, let alone Sino-American relationships, are suspect.September 15, 2023 -
Dimensions of Future IntelligenceFormer NIC Chair Greg Treverton presented the nine dimensions of challenges facing national intelligence in our August 3, 2023 Town...August 14, 2023 -
Ukraine and the Future of the Global (Dis)OrderAfter the Putin-Prigozhin clash, what is the future for Ukraine and the Global (Dis)order? Former NIC Chair Greg Treverton has...June 29, 2023 -
The CIA Discovers CrowdsourcingSMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair, Greg Treverton discusses how the CIA is at long last seeking to recruit...May 26, 2023 -
Understanding China’s Gen ZFormer NIC Chair Greg Treverton ponders how China's Generation Z may change after the end of China's zero-Covid lockdowns.April 13, 2023 -
The Endless WarSMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton ponders whether we can or cannot afford to have Russia lose the war in Ukraine.March 13, 2023 -
Memoirs of a Nuclear Age BabySMA Executive Advisor & Former NIC Chair Greg Treverton looks at the history of nuclear weapon stalemate and whether we...January 25, 2023 -
Thinking about the Third Nuclear AgeSMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton realizes we have more questions than answers in this third nuclear...January 20, 2023 -
Government That WorksWith Biden's first two years in office, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton shows Government can work, even amidst polarization and...January 6, 2023 -
How the US Army Can Appeal to Gen ZersA Fox News opinion piece by Greg Treverton and David Sprott shows how US Army Recruiting can appeal to Gen...December 29, 2022 -
Reflections on the Nation-StateStates are once more front and center in international politics, after 20 years of concern about non-state actors, especially terroristsDecember 19, 2022 -
The Looming Chip WarCan the US win the looming semiconductor war against China? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton offers his opinion...November 7, 2022 -
Geopolitics and Climate in the ArcticThe conflict in Ukraine has halted cooperation through the Arctic Council. Let's hope that, minus Russia, it restarts soon to...October 31, 2022 -
Will the Ukraine War Upend the Emerging World (Dis)Order?Does the Ukraine War threaten the emerging post-9/11 world order? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton thinks it won't end well...July 15, 2022
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Denying Delegation…and Ending Government as We Have Known ItSMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton discusses the Supreme Court's recent decisions and how they may affect the future of US...July 11, 2022 -
Relearning Old Lessons in UkraineThe tragic war in Ukraine underscored lessons we learned, or should have, long ago. SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton provides...June 13, 2022 -
The End of Russia as a Major Power?Considering the implications of the Ukraine war, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton believes this may be the end of Russia...May 26, 2022 -
Imagining the Endgame in UkraineOf all the possible endgames of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is the best or least less bad? Greg...April 22, 2022 -
The Geopolitics of the War in UkraineSMA Executive Advisor and former National Intelligence Council Chair, Greg Treverton, tries to make sense of the Russian invasion of...April 11, 2022 -
Truth is the Best Way to Defeat Putin’s Invasion of UkraineBen Wachendorf, SMA Executive Advisor and retired U.S. Navy Admiral, explains his insights on the invasion of Ukraine.March 7, 2022 -
Confessions of an AnalystAs an analyst with training in economics and a lifetime in politics, SMA Executive advisor Greg Treverton explains how he...February 3, 2022 -
Thinking about Artificial Intelligence (AI)Artificial Intelligence (AI) will have an impact on virtually all jobs, but beyond that, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton wonders...January 17, 2022 -
Lessons in Thinking about the FutureSMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton's experience provides a framework for the what to dos and what...November 10, 2021 -
China’s Government CapitalismSMA Executive Advisor and former chair of the NIC, Greg Treverton asks why China's President Xi is turning against the...October 11, 2021 -
Geopolitics and Decoupling from ChinaIn his latest opinion piece, SMA Executive Advisor and former Chair of the National Intelligence Council, Greg Treverton discusses the...September 14, 2021 -
A Revolution in Intelligence Affairs?SMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton asks whether the intelligence agencies are agile enough to herald a...July 21, 2021 -
The Simple Analytics—but Impossible Politics—of ImmigrationBased on the facts of US immigration, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton, former Chair of the National Intelligence Council, advocates...July 6, 2021 -
The Russia RiddleGreg Treverton, SMA Executive Advisor and former Chair of the National Intelligence Council, ponders whether the Biden administration is inclined...June 17, 2021 -
Global Trends: Peering into the FutureSMA Executive Advisor and former National Intelligence Council (NIC) Chair Greg Treverton reviews the NIC's latest Global Trends report which...June 7, 2021 -
Anecdotes in Search of a (North) American FederationFor our 6 May Town Hall, with its Cinco de Mayo theme, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton reminisced on his...May 11, 2021 -
Agenda for the Director of National IntelligenceSMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton lays out the top of the agenda for the new Director...April 19, 2021 -
Biden Will Test the Paradoxes of Modern EconomicsWhat will be the effect of the Biden Administration on today's post-modern economy, with its paradoxes of late last century...April 5, 2021 -
Systems Thinking and National IntelligenceCould national intelligence analysis benefit from a systems thinking approach? Greg Treverton, SMA Executive Advisor and former chair of the...March 17, 2021 -
The Solar Winds Wake-up CallSMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton makes the case that international rules of the road in the cyber world are long...February 19, 2021 -
Thinking about—and Preparing for—Climate EngineeringIn his latest opinion piece, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton argues that ready or not, climate engineering (CE) is coming,...February 16, 2021 -
Building Back BetterSMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton discusses the issues facing soon-to-be President Biden with enacting his campaign promise for America to...January 4, 2021 -
The Case for Policy PlanningGreg Treverton, SMA Advisor and former Chair of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, offers national security policy advice for the...December 22, 2020 -
A MAD Analogy for Mad Policy toward ChinaSMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton looks at the United States' current relationship with China. Are we looking at a new...October 23, 2020 -
American Democracy: Worth Voting For!In his opinion piece, SMA Principal Associate Dan Harrison makes the case for future leaders for American Democracy, an institution...September 28, 2020 -
The Future International Order?In his latest opinion piece, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton discusses whether, post-pandemic, the United States can remain the leader...September 10, 2020 -
10 Steps for US to Succeed in Complex Era of Great Power CompetitionHow can the United States succeed in today's complex era of competition between the great powers? SMA Executive Advisor and...July 30, 2020 -
A Rubik’s Cube with Flags: Lessons for Multinational Armaments ProgramsSMA Executive Advisor and a former NATO Assistant Secretary General Peter Flory presents lessons learned and best practices to help...July 17, 2020 -
Understand Bureaucratic Behaviors to Improve Systems Acquisition in the DoDDave Patterson discusses the nature of bureaucracy in the US Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition process, and offers simple incentives...July 7, 2020 -
Rethinking National SecuritySMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton advocates for rethinking U.S. national security in terms of health and biosecurity, not just a...June 24, 2020 -
Is China Waging Warfare Against the U.S.?In their White Paper, James Farwell and Dave Patterson ask whether China is waging war against the U.S. and other...April 24, 2020 -
Accountability at the DoDSMA Executive Advisor Ben Wachendorf (RADM US Navy, Ret.) shows how a poor decision making process at the DoD is...April 20, 2020 -
Slow-Down at the Pentagon: What Would Baldwin Say Today (Redux)Update! Nearly 2 years ago, we commented on how Hanson Baldwin would've been pleased that DoD Instruction 5000.2 is only...April 15, 2020 -
What Can DoD Do for the A&D Industry in the Midst of COVID-19? Now!Dave Patterson details some efforts that the US DoD can make right now that would help small businesses (and large...April 9, 2020
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North Korea’s Nuclear Program: Learning from Sig HeckerWill North Korea ever give up its nuclear weapons? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton reports on the views of Sig...March 20, 2020 -
Reflections on the Future of the National Intelligence Council and U.S. IntelligenceSMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton reflects on the past and future of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), which he led...March 6, 2020 -
Defense Spending and Deployments: A Little HistoryIn 2019, the United States spent $686 billion on defense, more than the combined total of the next six countries...February 4, 2020 -
The Future of Nuclear Non-ProliferationThe future of efforts to limit the danger of nuclear weapons in global affairs is clear. SMA Executive Advisor...January 7, 2020 -
The Imperative of DiplomacyA timely reminder from SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton that today’s young people will need to reshape both diplomacy and...October 23, 2019 -
Whither Nuclear Deterrence?From the end of the Soviet Union until now, the sole purpose of nuclear weapons was to deter nuclear attacks....August 29, 2019 -
Europe Coming Apart?Will the European Union become less effective as an American partner? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton looks at the EU's...August 27, 2019 -
The Chinese Way of War…and OursSMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton suggests that the US need to rethink its "way of war," designed for a time...July 17, 2019 -
North Korea a Year Later: Demonstrating Einstein?Einstein supposedly said, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different...June 20, 2019 -
When the Antagonist Doesn’t Play by the Same PlaybookIs "If They Can Do It, So Can We" an ethically acceptable playbook? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton discusses the...June 18, 2019 -
The Puzzle in Space…Or Back to the Future?What challenges does the proposed U.S. Space Force face in ramping up and better coordinating military activities in space?May 17, 2019 -
[Point]Counterpoint: Strategic Deterrence & Arms ControlAlthough intended to curtail the ubiquity of nuclear weapons and delivery systems, of what broad strategic value is the New...May 9, 2019 -
Point[Counterpoint]: Arms ControlNow is the time, and New START is an occasion, for President Trump to establish a good relationship with President...May 8, 2019 -
Point[Counterpoint]: Strategic DeterrenceStrategic deterrence is no longer just about nuclear war - we must consider cyber and space - and reflect on...March 26, 2019 -
Rebuilding Strategic ThinkingIf our world is less existentially dangerous than the high Cold War, it is scary in its shapelessness. It is...February 20, 2019 -
Parsing the Xi PuzzleChinese President Xi Jinping is a puzzle. He understands our politics better than we understand his, but will he win...December 27, 2018 -
The Parlous Future of Non-ProliferationThe strategic context for countering the proliferation of WMDs has changed dramatically without many observers quite noticingDecember 11, 2018 -
[Point]Counterpoint: The INF TreatyPresident Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty is not a disaster but is a mistake....November 15, 2018 -
Point[Counterpoint]: The INF TreatyTreaties are tricky documents. They rely on three factors to be of value: trust among the participants, clearly verifiable terms,...November 13, 2018 -
Hybrid Threats: Challenges for IntelligenceThe focus of recent concern is threats and attacks that seek to remain below the level of kinetic war. What...November 1, 2018 -
[Point]Counterpoint: The Middle EastBecause of its opposition to Iran’s aggression, Saudi Arabia remains an important tool in our overall strategy. It must remain...October 30, 2018 -
Point[Counterpoint]: The Middle EastThe bizarre, brutal killing of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul is an occasion for rethinking U.S. policy...October 29, 2018 -
Thinking Strategically About CyberCyber is too important to be left to the technologists. It's the great challenge of our times, and never before...September 24, 2018 -
[Point]Counterpoint: U.S. Space ForceA dedicated, truly joint space command makes eminent sense. But it would be wise not to expect too much too...September 21, 2018 -
Point[CounterPoint]: U.S. Space ForceWhat makes the establishment of the U.S. Space Force a near term priority is not organizational necessity, but a logical...September 20, 2018 -
[Point]Counterpoint: Trump’s Global StrategyIn response to Dr. Greg Treverton’s critique of President Trump’s global strategy, or perceived lack thereof, Dave Patterson argues that...September 19, 2018 -
Point[CounterPoint]: Trump’s Global StrategyThere is a certain logic to Trump’s strategy: major global institutions, like the EU & NATO, were created in a...September 18, 2018 -
![Point[CounterPoint]](https://webtest.smawins.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Point-Counterpoint.jpg)
SMA Launches New Point[Counterpoint] BlogSMA's Point will feature two distinguished authors, Greg Treverton and Dave Patterson, who have previously written controversial SMA opinion papers....September 17, 2018 -
[Point]Counterpoint: The American RepublicDave Patterson, SMA SVP for Strategic Business Opportunities responds to Greg Treverton’s “What Will Follow the First American Republic?” published...August 30, 2018 -
Point[Counterpoint]: The American RepublicTime as any to reflect on the ending of the first American republic and to reflect on what may come...August 29, 2018 -
The Power of WordsWhile we can’t do without language when discussing international relations, that same language can limit and often distort our understanding....August 16, 2018 -
Learning Lessons from the North Korea CaseTopic number one at a recent Seoul gathering of North Korea experts and intelligence chiefs from a dozen countries was...July 3, 2018 -
The Special Intelligence Challenges of North KoreaNorth Korea continues to present a special set of challenges for intelligence. Those challenges will only increase if recent summitry...July 2, 2018
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Slow-Down at the Pentagon: What Would Baldwin Say Today?The Armed Force Procurement Regulations, less than 125 pages in 1947, was 1,200 pages and growing daily by 1965. It's...June 28, 2018
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Senior Expert Does U-turn on North Korean DenuclearizationDr. Gregory F. Treverton admitted that while he used to be a non-believer in North Korean denuclearization, his views were...June 25, 2018 -
Addressing Hybrid ThreatsThe goal of hybrid threats is to achieve outcomes without actual war. There are a number of ways we can...June 4, 2018 -
The Russia ParadoxRussia is a failing petro-autocracy. Virtually everything Vladimir Putin has done temporarily extends Russia’s corrupt government but hastens its inevitable...April 14, 2018 -
Trump Administration’s National Security Priorities Present Opportunities for SMA ClientsRecently released government policy documents indicate that the Trump Administration’s national security priorities will benefit many SMA clients, especially in...March 22, 2018 -
Seeking for Strategy: The National Intelligence Council in the Last Quarter CenturyGreg Treverton, former Chair of the US National Intelligence Council, and SMA Executive Advisor, reflects on the last quarter century...February 16, 2018 -
A Baby-Step Solution for Improving the Defense Acquisition SystemImproving the Defense Acquisition System: "The solution is to establish a source selection schedule and keep to it. Simple. Right?"February 15, 2018
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The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review—A Quick AssessmentThe “Pre-Decisional” draft Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) developed by the Trump Administration is thoughtful and addresses threats to the U.S....January 30, 2018
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President Trump’s National Security Strategy: Consistent National MessageBy producing a National Security Strategy in his first year in office, President Trump has indicated that he views the...January 9, 2018 -
Cold War Redux?Rivalry between the great powers is an unwelcome surprise when the US had laser focused on the non-state threat of...January 8, 2018 -
Hybrid Threats: Russian Interference in the 2016 US ElectionCan we counter other nations’ abilities to find and release discrediting information, and use social media for propaganda to influence...October 31, 2017
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Universal Basic Income: An Idea Whose Time Has Not ComeIs it time for everyone to receive a minimum income regardless of circumstance to offset the effects of the successful...October 20, 2017 -
How Would Reagan’s Defense Secretary View the New Afghanistan Strategy?Caspar Weinberger’s six principles for using military force are a useful lens on Trump’s newish path in Southwest Asia.September 28, 2017 -
The Future of IntelligenceWhat are the future challenges facing national intelligence? What will be the effect of the Trump administration?September 20, 2017 -
Why Congress Should Pass An Appropriations Bill On Time For OnceDave Patterson, SMA SVP Strategic Sales, explains why we need Congress to pass appropriations bills on time.September 7, 2017 -
Global Trends and US PolicyBased on current trends, what does the future have in store for us five years from now, and 20 years...July 19, 2017 -
The Looming Disappointment, RevisitedWill the Trump administration be a boom for the defense industry? Greg Treverton, Dave Patterson, and Ajay Patel revisit their...July 7, 2017 -
The Changing Nature of WarExpert analysis on how the threats to our national security are changing, from nuclear and conventional war, to terrorism and...June 20, 2017 -
The Looming DisappointmentWill the Trump administration be a boom for the defense industry? Greg Treverton, Dave Patterson, and Ajay Patel advise caution.June 7, 2017
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Our Future If Today’s Geopolitical Trends ContinueGreg Treverton, SMA Executive Adviser, hypothesizes a future where the first nuclear weapon since 1945 will be used in a...April 13, 2017
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North Korea Opinion: The Dangers of a Preemptive StrikeGreg Treverton warns a preemptive strike on North Korea isn't likely to take out their nuclear program or bring about...March 23, 2017 -
Defense Planning for Threats, Not Capabilities: the VideoWatch Dave Patterson and Greg Treverton discuss their whitepaper on “Defense Planning for Threats, not Capability”March 20, 2017 -
Defense Planning for Threats, Not CapabilitiesGreg Treverton and Dave Patterson argue that the US should base defense planning on threats, not capabilities.March 20, 2017
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